Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC     

Li Zhai  Blair J.W. Greenan  John Hunter  Thomas S. James  Guoqi Han  Phillip MacAulay 《大气与海洋》2015,53(5):476-490

Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.  相似文献   

Impact of the Vertical Velocity Field on Charging Processes and Charge Separation in a Simulated Thunderstorm          下载免费PDF全文

WANG Fei  ZHANG Yijun  ZHENG Dong  XU Liangtao 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2015,29(2):328-343

A three-dimensional(3D) charging-discharging cloud resolution model was used to investigate the impact of the vertical velocity field on the charging processes and the formation of charge structure in a strong thunderstorm. The distribution and evolution of ice particle content and charges on ice particles were analyzed in different vertical velocity fields. The results show that the ice particles in the vertical velocity range from 1 to 5 m s-1obtained the most charge through charging processes during the lifetime of the thunderstorm. The magnitude of the charges could reach 1014 n C. Before the beginning of lightning activity,the charges produced in updraft region 2(updraft speed 13 m s-1) and updraft region 1(updraft speed between 5 and 13 m s-1) were relatively significant. The magnitudes of charge reached 1013 n C, which clearly impacted upon the early lightning activity. The vertical velocity conditions in the quasi-steady region(updraft speed between –1 and 1 m s-1) were the most conducive for charge separation on ice particles on different scales. Accordingly, a net charge structure always appeared in the quasi-steady and adjacent regions. Based on the results, a conceptual model of ice particle charging, charge separation, and charge structure formation in the flow field was constructed. The model helps to explain observations of the"lightning hole" phenomenon.  相似文献   

Estimation of turbulent sensible heat and momentum fluxes over a heterogeneous urban area using a large aperture scintillometer     

Sang-Hyun Lee  Jun-Ho Lee  Bo-Young Kim 《大气科学进展》2015,32(8):1092-1105

The accurate determination of surface-layer turbulent fluxes over urban areas is critical to understanding urban boundary layer (UBL) evolution. In this study, a remote-sensing technique using a large aperture scintillometer (LAS) was investigated to estimate surface-layer turbulent fluxes over a highly heterogeneous urban area. The LAS system, with an optical path length of 2.1 km, was deployed in an urban area characterized by a complicated land-use mix (residential houses, water body, bare ground, etc.). The turbulent sensible heat (Q H) and momentum fluxes (τ) were estimated from the scintillation measurements obtained from the LAS system during the cold season. Three-dimensional LAS footprint modeling was introduced to identify the source areas ("footprint") of the estimated turbulent fluxes. The analysis results showed that the LAS-derived turbulent fluxes for the highly heterogeneous urban area revealed reasonable temporal variation during daytime on clear days, in comparison to the land-surface process-resolving numerical modeling. A series of sensitivity tests indicated that the overall uncertainty in the LAS-derived daytime Q H was within 20%-30% in terms of the influence of input parameters and the non-dimensional similarity function for the temperature structure function parameter, while the estimation errors in τ were less sensitive to the factors of influence, except aerodynamic roughness length. The 3D LAS footprint modeling characterized the source areas of the LAS-derived turbulent fluxes in the heterogeneous urban area, revealing that the representative spatial scales of the LAS system deployed with the 2.1 km optical path distance ranged from 0.2 to 2 km2 (a "micro-α scale"), depending on local meteorological conditions.  相似文献   

A diagnostic study of the asymmetric distribution of rainfall during the landfall of typhoon Haitang (2005)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Caijun Yue  Shouting Gao  Lu Liu  Xiaofan Li 《大气科学进展》2015,32(10):1419-1430

The precipitation during landfall of typhoon Haitang (2005) showed asymmetric structures (left side/right side of the track). Analysis of Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation data showed that rainfall on the right side was more than 15 times stronger than on the left side. The causes were analyzed by focusing on comparing the water vapor flux, stability and upward motion between the two sides. The major results were as follows: (2) Relative humidity on both sides was over 80%, whereas the convergence of water vapor flux in the lower troposphere was about 10 times larger on the right side than on the left side. (5) Both sides featured conditional symmetric instability [MPV (moist potential vorticity) <0], but the right side was more unstable than the left side. (6) Strong (weak) upward motion occurred throughout the troposphere on the right (left) side. The Q vector diagnosis suggested that large-scale and mesoscale forcing accounted for the difference in vertical velocity. Orographic lift and surface friction forced the development of the asymmetric precipitation pattern. On the right side, strong upward motion from the forcing of different scale weather systems and topography caused a substantial release of unstable energy and the transportation of water vapor from the lower to the upper troposphere, which produced torrential rainfall. However, the above conditions on the left side were all much weaker, which led to weaker rainfall. This may have been the cause of the asymmetric distribution of rainfall during the landfall of typhoon Haitang.  相似文献   

陆面过程模型中垂直非均匀土壤的水分传输及相变的模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李倩  孙菽芬 《大气科学》2015,39(4):827-838

土壤湿度在陆气相互作用中的重要性体现在它既能影响陆地和大气之间水循环的速率, 又能改变地表的能量分配。本文针对陆面过程模型中描述土壤湿度变化的方程进行了理论分析, 指出在非均匀土壤和冻土中采用土壤水势梯度描述垂直非均匀土壤水分流动的合理性。基于描述土壤内部水热传输的统一土壤模型, 并利用推广的表征土壤水分特征的Clapp-Hornberger关系式, 研究了非冻结和冻结的土壤湿度对于垂直非均匀土壤的敏感性。结果表明, 由土壤质地决定的土壤水势和导水率对土壤湿度的模拟有重要的影响。具体地, 在决定土壤性质的Clapp-Hornberger关系式中, 与土壤质地有关的饱和水势、饱和导水率以及土壤孔隙大小分布指数B, 对土壤湿度的模拟起到了关键作用。参数B的重要性尤为突出, 它的增加会引起导水率的大大下降, 从而对水分在土壤中的垂直分布产生重要影响。饱和水势的绝对值和参数B的增加会使得土壤水势绝对值增加明显, 使土壤的结冰(融化)过程延迟, 土壤温度因为没有结冰(融化)释放(吸收)的潜热加热(冷却)而持续下降(上升), 因此在冻融时期土壤温度会比观测值振幅偏大。上述结果揭示了考虑土壤垂直非均匀性并采用有效的土壤特性参数对于陆面过程模型的重要性。  相似文献   

一次霾天气条件下石家庄上空大气气溶胶数浓度的飞行探测与特征分析     

金赛花  濮江平  张瑜 《气象与环境科学》2015,38(1):40-45

利用2010年8月30日河北省石家庄一次霾天气条件下的气溶胶飞行探测资料,分析了石家庄地区上空658—6933 m高度范围内大气气溶胶粒子平均数浓度、平均直径的垂直分布特征和9个水平飞行高度上的谱分布特征。结果表明:轻度霾天气条件下的气溶胶平均数浓度为325个/cm3,平均直径为0.169μm。在约1000 m高度以下,气溶胶平均数浓度随高度的增加呈线性减少趋势。粒径也随高度增加而减小,由0.187μm减小至0.164μm。1000 m高度以上,气溶胶平均数浓度随高度减少趋势变缓,粒子平均直径在0.167~0.171μm范围内波动。9个不同高度上的谱分布都呈单峰型,随着高度增加,谱宽变小,峰值向小尺度方向移动。后向轨迹计算分析表明:污染气团的远距离输送可能是导致大气1500 m高度层气溶胶数浓度突增的原因。  相似文献   

冬小麦农田裸温与气温差异分析及其应用     

李翠娜  张雪芬  薛红喜 《气象与环境科学》2015,38(1):7-13

以矮秆代表作物冬小麦为研究对象,利用郑州农业气象试验站2010年10月15日—2011年6月2日农田小气候观测的各层裸温、气温、总辐射和覆盖度资料,采用对比差值、温度垂直梯度等方法统计分析,并对温度对比差值和总辐射曝辐量相关关系和温度的垂直梯度分布特征进行了研究,结果表明:25cm、150cm和300cm高度的日平均裸温和气温变化趋势基本一致,其对比差值呈由小变大趋势;各层裸温和气温的日分布符合温度日变化分布的一般规律,垂直梯度变化比较明显;各层对比差值呈单峰分布,峰值出现在正午12时左右;裸温和气温的对比差值与总辐射曝辐量呈线性相关。裸温与气温的垂直梯度变化有很好的一致性,可利用裸温不同层次间垂直梯度变化特征确定气温传感器合理的安装高度;根据麦田裸温垂直梯度变化特征,考虑到温度防辐射罩高度限制,矮秆作物田间小气候气温应在距离地表面25cm、50cm和150cm高度附近分别设置观测层次。  相似文献   

2008年冬季北京上空上对流层/下平流层臭氧的异常特征          下载免费PDF全文

赵倩  刘毅  管兆勇  陆春晖  蔡兆男 《大气科学学报》2015,38(6):796-803

利用国产GPSO3臭氧探空系统观测的大气臭氧探空资料和NCEP再分析资料,结合对天气形势、大气环流背景、高空位涡变化及对流层顶高度扰动的分析,深入研究了2008年冬季北京地区10~14 km高度范围内持续出现的臭氧次峰值及大气臭氧含量异常现象。结果表明:在2008年我国南方雪灾这一特殊时期,引起臭氧垂直分布持续出现次峰值现象及臭氧含量异常的主要原因是平流层空气强烈下沉运动及其与对流层的交换作用,而引起这种下沉运动及平流层-对流层交换则是由于该阶段特殊的天气背景,乌拉尔阻塞高压长时间维持,贝加尔湖到巴尔喀什湖一带横槽稳定存在,里海以东切断低压长期维持,造成冷空气长时间、稳定地南下影响北京上空臭氧的垂直分布。加之副热带急流的出现,北京正处于其入口区左侧,其上空有强烈的辐合下沉运动,有利于平流层空气向下输送。此次臭氧次峰值及臭氧含量异常的现象很好地说明,在冷空气天气过程的影响下,北京地区上空的平流层空气运动及其与对流层的交换十分活跃。  相似文献   

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孟宪纲  陈聚忠  张俊青  寇建波 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(1):13-15

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韩月萍  罗三明  陈阜超  杨博  张风霜  郑智江 《大地测量与地球动力学》2015,35(1):21-25

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